Population growth will doom Gov. Jerry Brown’s greenhouse gas plan

Joe Guzzardi
May 1, 2015
As seen in:
Lodi News-Sentinel

Gov. Jerry Brown has added another item to his always aggressive agenda. First, Brown endorsed the high-speed rail, a project that has more critics than fans. Then, he signed multibillion-dollar water bills that are aimed at helping cope with the drought and reducing the burden on Californians most dramatically affected. Brown has also urged a 25 percent cutback in drinking water usage, and a hefty $10,000 fine for water wasters.

The latest Brown mission, prompted in part by California’s historic drought, is to achieve a 40 percent greenhouse gas reduction from the state’s 1990 level by 2030. In 1990, participating countries signed the Kyoto Protocol to address global warming. California is part of the way to its goal. The state has cut its emissions by 25 percent from 1990 levels, mostly by getting electricity from wind and solar power, and imposing stricter vehicle-emissions rule.

Brown’s new regulations will most likely be applied to municipalities and businesses, and not individual residents. Business groups were quick to respond and claimed that more rigid standards would drive up costs. The end result would be higher prices to consumers and therefore fewer affordable products available to low-income families. Some businesses suggested that, if Brown’s vision becomes a reality, they would be forced to relocate outside of California.

Nevertheless, Brown’s forward thinking got rave reviews in the European Union. Niklas Hoehne, head of Germany’s New Climate Institute called Brown’s pledge to act more ambitious than any proposal he’s seen from an industrialized country. U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres said California’s announcement is another reason for optimism on climate change and could establish a model for other similar “inspiring actions within the U.S. and around the globe.”

As with many of Brown’s pet projects, the specifics are lacking, but the governor has previously suggested increasing renewable energy sources, more efficient and less petroleum dependent vehicles, and cleaner heating fuels. Brown is eager to cast himself as a global leader on climate change which he has called an economic and social threat to California’s future.

The Associated Press called Brown’s emissions agenda more symbolic than practical, and equated its goal to the same as taking 36 million vehicles off the road. Symbolic is the best descriptor for Brown’s plan since he will be attempting to balance his environmental agenda with California’s realities, a challenging goal. California has nearly 40 million residents, and will hit 45 million in Brown’s target year of 2030. The 15 million additional people will need more housing, schools, hospitals, freeways, goods and services to sustain them.

In 2010, a landmark international study conducted by researchers from the U.S., Germany and Austria titled “Global Demographic Trends and Future Carbon Emissions” used an energy–economic growth model to account for a range of demographic dynamics found that slowing population growth could reduce emissions by 16 to 19 percent by 2050.

But the population variable is one that Brown has never acknowledged, and probably never will no matter how much graver the drought or California’s ecological footprint becomes.

Joe Guzzardi retired from the Lodi Unified School District in 2008. He’s currently a Californians for Population Stabilization senior writing fellow. Contact him at [email protected].