Study Shows 38 Million Illegal Immigrants in U.S.

By Joe Murray, The Bulletin
October 10, 2007

A new study released by Californians for Population Stabilization (CAPS) claims that there are 38 million illegal immigrants living in the United States, a number larger than the 11.6 million illegal immigrants estimated by the Census Bureau and Department of Homeland Security.

"Guessing the number of illegal aliens in the United States is like playing the lottery – more than a million to one that you will be right on," wrote James H. Walsh, a former associate general counsel of the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS).

Mr. Walsh argues his "estimate of 38 million illegal aliens residing in the United States is calculated, however, using a conservative annual rate of entry (allowing for deaths and returns to their homelands) of three illegal aliens entering the United States for each one apprehended." Mr. Walsh also adds 2 million for visa overstays.

Mr. Walsh was not the only contributor to the CAPS study, as a number of immigration experts presented evidence trying to ascertain the number of illegal aliens in the U.S. and the consequences a broken border has on the nation. The study quickly came under fire and Diana Hull, president of CAPS, was quick to correct media misrepresentations.

In yesterday’s Houston Chronicle, Julie Mason reported the study was not "credited or supported by other independent research," a claim strongly disavowed by Ms. Hull.

"When that reporter says this study is not supported by independent research, she is wrong," stated Ms. Hull, who pointed to the research provided by the study’s contributors, as well as L.A. Times and Time magazine reports that the number of illegal immigrants exceeds the Census Bureau numbers, an agency Ms. Hull believes is not in the position to provide reliable data on the issue.

"The problem with the Census data is not that the Census Bureau is a bad agency. … It is that the method they rely on, the questionnaire/self-report method, is completely dependent on what people tell them," stated Ms. Hull. Ms. Hull argues that illegal aliens will not be truthful in responding to how many people live in a household.

In explaining why the study was published, Ms. Hull stated she wanted to make sure the Senate, which has been flirting with amnesty, remembered the mistake it made in 1986 when it granted amnesty to 2.7 million illegal aliens. Ten years following the amnesty, a measure meant to reduce illegal immigration, the government reported 10 million illegal aliens in the nation, and today there are potentially 38 million illegal aliens in the country.

Despite such numbers, former Pennsylvania governor and Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge is calling for a more lenient visa policy. Mr. Ridge, who is an affiliate with the Discover America Partnership, a pro-business lobby seeking to make international travel easier, argued the U.S. needed to be more inviting to foreigners.

Locally, state lawmakers in Harrisburg have been trying to pass immigration reform. State Rep. Daryl Metcalfe, R-Butler, has spearheaded immigration reform legislation as part of his National Security Begins at Home campaign. The legislation, which, among other things, would punish employers of illegal aliens and permit local law enforcement to aid in the enforcement of federal immigration laws, faces an uphill battle in the Pennsylvania legislature.

Mr. Metcalfe recently published a study showing 3,100 illegal immigrants have committed crimes in Pennsylvania and stated "Democrat Leader Bill DeWeese and Speaker of the House Dennis O’Brien have now been officially served with more than 3,100 undeniable, criminal reasons" to pass his legislation.