Illegal Aliens Estimated at 20 to 38 Million
Published on October 24th, 2007
Diana Hull, President
Californians for Population Stabilization
Report by CAPS Disputes Government Figures
WASHINGTON, DC—Homeland Security’s August 31 report that 8 to 12 million illegal aliens reside in the United States grossly underestimates the number of illegal foreigners, according to a new study by the Californians for Population Stabilization (CAPS) released on Wednesday, October 3.
The new report, "The Illegal Population Explosion: A Realistic Appraisal of its Actual Size, Implications for the Future, and Consequences for Public Policy Decisions and Citizen Activism," was released at a News Conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.
Four experts who contributed to the 45-page study explained their findings that illegal aliens in the U.S. total at least 20 million, but perhaps as many as 38 million or more — which far exceeds 8 to 12 million estimated by Homeland Security’s Office of Immigration Studies new report, "Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States, January 2006" (released August 31, 2007, see http://www.dhs.gov/ximgtn/statistics . The new study disputing the government figures was funded by Californians for Population Stabilization (CAPS) (www.capsweb.org) and published by The Social Contract Press (www.thesocialcontract.com).
The new report’s contributors and paper titles which were discussed the Washington, D.C. News were:
"How Many Foreign Nationals Actually Live in the U.S. Illegally?" — Diana Hull, Ph.D., behavioral scientist and President of Californians for Population Stabilization (CAPS).
"Illegal Aliens: Counting the Uncountable" — James Walsh, J.D., former Associate General Counsel of the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS).
"Spiraling Backwards: The Fiscal Impact of Illegal Immigration in California, Revisited" — Philip Romero, Ph.D., professor of Business Administration at the University of Oregon who previously was Economic Advisor to former California Governor Pete Wilson.
"How Many Illegal Aliens are in the U.S.? An Alternative Methodology to Discovering the Numbers" — Fred Elbel, computer specialist from Colorado who is an expert in methodologies and data analysis
Wayne Lutton, Ph.D., editor of The Social Contract, was the moderator.
"There is good reason to believe that instead of 8 to12 million illegal aliens living in the United States, there may actually be 20 to 30 million or more," Diana Hull, President of CAPS, writes in her paper, "How Many Foreign Nationals Actually Live in the U.S. Illegally?" "Getting those numbers right was crucial, but ignored, during the recent Senate debate. There is no matter more critical for our population future than ascertaining the actual scale of this problem," she writes.
James Walsh, former associate general counsel to the INS, says in his paper, "Illegal Aliens: Counting the Uncountable," that: "No exact head count exists for the ghost population of illegal aliens. …Guessing the number is like playing the lottery." None of the government "experts" "has a clue as to the exact number," he says, "but this does not keep them from crafting estimates to fit their own agenda. …My estimate of 38 million illegal aliens residing in the United States is calculated using a conservative annual rate of entry (allowing for deaths and returns to their homeland) of three illegal aliens entering the United States for each one apprehended," he explains. His article further details his methodology and experiences at the INS.
Philip Romero, former economic advisor to Gov. Pete Wilson of California, says in his paper, "Spiraling Backwards: The Fiscal Impact of Illegal Immigration in California, Revisited" that "the average illegal immigrant receives eight to twelve dollars in services for every dollar they pay in taxes, roughly twice the disparity found in 1994… Illegal immigrants impose a ‘tax’ on legal Californian residents in the tens of billions of dollars. Their costs, net of taxes, consume about 20 percent of the entire state budget, crowding out vital services or lower taxes for legal residents."
In his paper, "How Many Illegal Aliens are in the U.S.? An Alternative Methodology to Discovering the Numbers," Fred Elbel includes five tables and many statistics to explain his methodology to arrive at a reasonable figure of illegals. "Official estimates are somewhat suspect and may represent significant undercounts, as they are produced by the very entity responsible for the tidal wave of illegal aliens entering our nation," Mr. Elbel explains. "Based on [my] analysis…it is likely that up to 20 million illegal aliens presently reside in the United States, with up to 12,000 additional illegal aliens entering every day."
To receive a copy of the new study, "The Illegal Population Explosion: A Realistic Appraisal of its Actual Size, Implications for the Future, and Consequences for Public Policy Decisions and Citizen Activism," go to CAPS’s website: The study may be viewed on CAPS’ website at http://www.capsweb.org/content.php?id=57&menu_id=8, contact the CAPS office at 805-564-6626 or [email protected].