Playing with the Math: If Everything Goes Wrong, 6-8 Million Aliens Could Get Administrative Amnesty

Published on January 30th, 2012

As frightening as the Obama prosecutorial discretion policy is as it’s currently defined, what’s scarier is how it could ultimately end up. According to administration insiders, a total of 300,000 aliens have been identified as likely targets to be taken out of deportation proceedings. But unofficially, the number could be much higher.

The results from the first two test cities, Baltimore and Denver, are in. According to a CNN report, 14 percent of the 11,682 deportation cases (1,667) reviewed were closed. Pending a final background check those individuals will be allowed to stay in the United States. In all likelihood, they will be given work permits which rubs salt into the wounds of the nation’s 14 million unemployed. [Protocols Could Allow 14% of Immigrants to Bypass Courts, by Mike Ahlers, CNN, January 20, 2012]

Department of Homeland Security spokesman Kim Barnof said that the final results of the pilot program may differ from the preliminary totals:

"For a variety of reasons, including the results of background checks, the final results of the pilot programs will likely differ from these preliminary numbers."

But in what direction will they “differ”? For now, the administration is proceeding cautiously. The presidential election is only a few months away. Lamar Smith, Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, is watching DHS carefully.

Should President Obama win re-election, however, then the sky literally is the limit. Since getting a formal amnesty through what could be a Republican-dominated Congress will remain unlikely, prosecutorial discretion is the way the administration would go.

Remember that Obama’s guidelines for exemption are many and vague. Among them are individuals with “strong ties to the United States,” students, primary care providers or family wage earners, military, disabled, and the old or infirm. That’s everyone except convicted axe murderers!

If 14 percent becomes the average nationwide success rate, then of today’s 300,000 under review 42,000 would bypass the court system and be granted an unofficial amnesty.

But assuming Obama gets a second term why, the Hispanic lobby and hard core administration insiders would wonder, stop at 300,000 especially if Republican opposition had been marginalized in the November election? And why should only 14 percent qualify? What’s wrong with 75, 85 or even 95 percent?

Let’s estimate that there are at least ten million illegal aliens in the United States. I’ll subtract, for the sake of argument, 1 million of them who may have criminal records. I can envision a probable scenario wherein the vast majority of the remaining 9 million would, over time, qualify for administrative amnesty. That could result in anywhere from 6 to 8 million getting a backdoor amnesty without any Congressional oversight.

How probable is my worst case nightmare? Well, let’s just say that given the secretive nature of the process and the favorable disposition of those who support its end results, I’ll conclude that it’s more probable than you would like it to be.

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