Immigration and the 2012 Elections

by Joe Guzzardi
March 25, 2011

Election cycles end on the first Tuesday in November; campaigning for the next race begins the following day. Incumbents once had a few months respite to regroup before formalizing their strategies for the next battle. That’s history now.

The 2012 Congressional elections promise to be earth scorching with immigration enforcement the most contentious domestic issue. Less than three months in, the GOP which now controls the House has jumped to an early lead to take the Senate, too.

Four Democratic senators and one Independent who have all consistently voted for higher immigration levels recently announced their retirements. They are: Hawaii’s Daniel Akaka, North Dakota’s Kent Conrad, New Mexico’s Jeff Bingaman and Virginia’s Jim Webb. Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman, an Independent, has amassed a four-term record in support of amnesty and increased workers’ visas.

Among the 16 Democrats who will seek reelection, at least half are vulnerable committed pro-immigration advocates. That list includes New Jersey’s Bob Menendez, Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Jr., New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand and Florida’s Bill Nelson. An ominous sign for them: in 2010, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Florida ousted their Democratic senators and governors. Other Democrats like California’s Dianne Feinstein are at risk not only on immigration but also because of other variables like their advanced ages, extended tenures and support for President Obama’s unpopular stimulus program, health care legislation and costly foreign conflicts.

Remembering that Republicans only need four seats to control the Senate, the party’s prospects look good—unless it repeats mistakes it made last year. Nevada nominee Sharron Angle and Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell were too far out of the mainstream to have taken advantage of the prevailing anti-Democratic sentiment.

Probable Republican candidates include former Virginia Senator George Allen who during his one term in the House and one in the Senate voted to reduce chain migration and to strengthen the border. In New Mexico Heather Wilson, a former U.S. representative, may bid for Bingaman’s seat. Wilson, swept out of office during Obama’s 2008 landslide, campaigned for a more secure border and argued that illegal immigration is unfair to millions legally and patiently waiting in line.

North Dakota, a state that historically leans heavily GOP, may nominate U.S. Representative Rick Berg whose last platform encouraged mandatory E-verify. On ending illegal immigration, Berg insists: “We have to enforce the laws we have on the books.” Finally, Florida will likely see five-term Representative Connie Mack in a strong bid to replace the highly unpopular Nelson. While in the House, Mack consistently voted to end amnesty enticements.

Certainly, things will happen between now and November 2012 that could affect the election’s outcome. The biggest variable is Obama’s popularity. If his polling numbers increase from their current middling range, that would help the Democrats’ chances.

But Obama can’t undo what he’s already done. The 3 to 5 million jobs Obama promised won’t be filled, the memory of how he rammed health care down America’s throats won’t go away and Obama’s three concurrent wars and their astronomical costs will still be permanently etched in voters’ minds.

Then, there’s always Obama curious and potentially disastrous commitment to comprehensive immigration reform. Even though the odds against it are overwhelming, Obama remains steadfast. In El Salvador this week, Obama vowed to press Congress to pass amnesty legislation even though he doesn’t have the votes in either the Senate or the House.

Obama may want to remember that he’ll also be running in 2012 and might be as vulnerable as his Democratic colleagues. Without a dramatic and unforeseen turnaround in the political landscape, last year’s trend that saw House and Senate Republicans pick up 63 and 5 seats respectively will likely continue.

Joe Guzzardi has written editorial columns—mostly about immigration and related social issues – since 1986. He is a senior writing fellow for Californians for Population Stabilization (CAPS) and his columns have frequently been syndicated in various U.S. newspapers and websites. He can be reached at [email protected].